Climate and Wildfire in the Western United States

نویسنده

  • Anthony Westerling
چکیده

MAY 2003 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | T he number and extent of wildfires in the western United States each season are driven by natural factors such as fuel availability, temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and the location of lightning strikes, as well as anthropogenic factors. It is well known that climate fluctuations significantly affect these natural factors, and thus the severity of the western wildfire season, at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Previous studies (Simard et al. 1985; Swetnam and Betancourt 1990; Jones et al. 1999) have demonstrated that large-scale climate patterns in conjunction with El Niño affect the frequency and extent of wildfires that occur in particular regions of the United States. Swetnam and Betancourt (1998) and Balling et al. (1992) have found relationships between the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and fire season severity. Our study differs from earlier work in its resolution, comprehensiveness, and regional scale. Until now, the lack of a comprehensive fire climatology has hampered detailed studies of climate–fire relationships. Some previous studies (e.g., Simard et al. 1985; Swetnam and Betancourt 1998; Mote et al. 1999) have looked at wildfires by state or larger regions, aggregating fire statistics for many different fuel types and climates, with the result that relationships between climate, fuel type, and fire severity may be obscured. Others have focused on climate influences upon wildfires aggregated at the level of the forest or stand (e.g., Swetnam and Betancourt 1998; Balling et al. 1992)—a finer resolution than pursued here— for smaller regions. Our study is the first to consider the larger picture of wildfire for the entire western United States, including fire histories from several federal agencies whose territories span a diverse array of ecosystems. The quality of the location data for some of these fire histories constrains a comprehensive, regional-scale analysis to a 1° grid resolution. This level of aggregation obscures some of the rich detail of wildfire variability related to the enormous variability in vegetation within the western United States. However, at the same time it provides a common fire history with comprehensive coverage over CLIMATE AND WILDFIRE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th...

متن کامل

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eigh...

متن کامل

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous 1 aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the 2 mid - 21 st century

15 We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21 st 16 century (2046-2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B 17 scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from 18 the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area 19 burned. The regressions explain 0.25-0.6...

متن کامل

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown ...

متن کامل

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century.

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046-2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25-0.60 of the varianc...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2003